CLAUSE · BACKTEST REPORT · HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE

TQQQ trend rider

“Hold 3x-levered QQQ only while it trades above its 50-day average”

Tested over October 2024 to August 2026. On data sealed Aug 21, 2026. Published 23 August 2026.

The contract

1. Universe. Trade only TQQQ.
2. Signal. Each trading day at 09:35 ET, read TQQQ’s close price.
3. Signal. Also read TQQQ’s 50-day simple moving average.
4. Entry. If px exceeds sma50, set the target allocation of TQQQ to 100%.
5. Exit. Otherwise, set the target allocation of TQQQ to 0%.

Equity vs SPY buy-and-hold

STRATEGYSPY BUY-AND-HOLD▲▽ FILLSlinear scale

Tear sheet

TOTAL

+79.8%

CAGR

+38.7%

VOL

40.9%

SHARPE

1.01

SPY SHARPE

–

BUY-AND-HOLD SHARPE

–

SORTINO

1.39

MAX DD

−27.9%

LONGEST DD

–

BETA

0.59

GROSS

–

GROSS MAX

–

NET

–

LONG

–

SHORT

–

TRADES

TURNOVER

–

COST DRAG

–

CAPACITY

–

FINAL VALUE

$179,770 from $100,000

MARGIN NOTES

most of the return came from 2026-01-23 to 2026-06-03 — one stretch carries the result

Per-clause attribution

Each number re-runs the backtest with that clause removed and shows what it contributed, so they do not add up to the total.

Clause 4

+79.8%

Clause 5

−19.1%

About these numbers

Window

Tested from Oct 21, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026. On a copy of the market sealed Aug 21, 2026.

Costs

Every fill pays spread and slippage. This run predates the written cost model; run it again to see the assumptions key by key.

Attribution

Each clause's share of the result is measured by re-running the backtest without it.

Hypothetical performance on historical data. The same contract on the same data and cost model reproduces this number exactly. Backtests are not indicative of future results.